Since I released this video, I’ve received lots of emails regarding the topic of 100x.

So, let’s talk about 100x odds.

INTRO

Craps is a simple game at its’ heart. There is a pair of dice with only 36 possible combinations, and the player bets on what he or she thinks or hopes will roll in the future. That’s really craps in a nutshell.

The theories, thoughts, and strategies behind how to best play craps is a different story. You could do an online search about the best strategies and need years of reading and watching, and you still wouldn’t have consumed every idea that’s been proposed.

One thing is mathematically undeniable: The lowest house edge, in a craps game, is obtained by playing 100x odds. 

Notice I qualified my statement with the word, ‘mathematically’. That’s because there are lots of craps players, some of whom are very knowledgeable, who scoff at the idea of playing 100x odds.

So let’s discuss some of the upsides and downsides of playing 100x.

WHY 100X APPLIES TO YOU

Ok, you’re thinking, ‘I don’t play 100x, so this article is a waste of my time’. Not true. Just think of 100x as an analogy for any high odds game or any high buy-in game.

If you play 20x, or even 10x, then this article is for you. The mathematical disparity between 10x, 20x, and 100x is small enough that you should know the upsides and downsides of playing a high odds craps game.

From this point forward, I am going to use the term ‘100x’, but if you play 10x or higher, just substitute in the odds multiplier that you normally play.

ARGUMENT AGAINST: ZERO HOUSE EDGE DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT YOU WILL WIN

This is an often stated criticism about playing 100x. It’s a valid criticism that’s absolutely true.

My problem with this argument is not the argument itself; after all, it’s a valid and true argument. My problem is that those who advocate this argument then start making bets that have a house edge, in lieu of taking odds.

I know of a dice instructor who routinely makes this argument and then tells his students to make place bets instead. Doing so will only increase your hourly loss.

While 100x does not guarantee that you will win, the lack of a house edge guarantees that mathematically, you have the greatest probability of winning, versus spreading your money into bets that have a house edge.

Why will you have the greatest probability of winning? Because you will be paying the lowest fee possible on your wins. Which brings us to the next step in my argument…

100X ENSURES FULL PAYOUT VERSUS ALTERNATIVE BETS

Just think of the odds bet and the place bet like this…

Let’s pretend the point is 9 (this same math applies to any of the point numbers). When you make a $100 place bet on the point of 9, the casino should rightfully pay you $150; however, it doesn’t. The casino will pay you $140 and keep $10 as a fee. Compare this to an odds bet where the house will pay you $150 on the same $100 bet. The house keeps no fee on the odds portion of the bet.

Even factoring in the 1.41% house edge on the pass or come bet, if the bettor is only betting $10 on the line/come, the house is only keeping a 14 cent fee on the combination of pass and odds.

So, do you want to pay $10 or 14 cents? Of course 14 cents. 

It makes no sense to argue that odds bets are bad bets, and then start making place bets (or any other bet that carries a house edge), in lieu of the odds bet.

100X CREATES A LARGE AMOUNT OF VARIANCE

This is truly one of the biggest downsides to 100x. If you play any high odds game, you are in for a wild ride.

I address this issue by having a large available bankroll. Also, I don’t always play 100x. Most of the time, I play 10x or 20x.

There’s really not much to argue about when it comes to this point. If you have the stomach and the bankroll to ride the 100x rollercoaster, it’s an awesome ride on the way up. If you don’t then I suggest reducing your odds to a lower amount so that you can sustain the inevitable downswings.

Let’s talk about that bankroll…

100X REQUIRES A SIGNIFICANT BANKROLL

In any gambling session, if I’m serious about my play, I like to have 40-50 units. So when you’re watching me play the Bally’s 100x game, I’m playing with $40,000 in the rail.

You don’t need this type of bankroll to play a high odds game, although the requirement will be higher than 3x,4x,5x.

Like I said at the start of this article, just think of 100x as an analogy for any high odds game. 

Let’s say you play 10x. If you are able to find a $5 game with 10x odds, your average bet will be $55. For simplicity’s sake, let’s just say your average bet is $50. Let’s say you want to play with 40 units. You will need to buy in for $2000.

At 40 units, if you resist the urge to spread your bets into other bets that carry a high house edge, such as the hard ways, prop bets, outside place bets, etc, you will have a very low risk of ruin (meaning you’ll go broke). 

Remember, the most important thing is to not spread your bets away from the odds bet. If you follow this strategy, you won’t need a $50,000 buy in. 

100X LOSSES ARE LARGE AND 100X WINS ARE LARGE

Are you a ‘glass half full or glass half empty’ kind of person? 

Because 100x ensures that when you lose, your losses are going to be enormous. Alternatively, when you win, you are going to have the same correspondingly large win, assuming you have the same win/loss betting criteria and strategies.

Just watch my Ballys 100x video. In the span of not more than 10 minutes, I lost $5000+, and in the span of about 8 minutes, I won back the $5000, and more.

The video kind of speaks for itself.

So you have to ask yourself, do you want on this rollercoaster?

THE ARGUMENT THAT THE HOUSE RETAINS AN EDGE

This argument usually starts with a matter of semantics. It’s true that the casino retains an advantage on the overall combination of the pass+odds and come+odds bet. If the argument is that the combination of the two bets retains a house edge, then that argument is true.

However, it’s really not arguable that the odds portion of the bet combo has zero house edge.

This argument is also a cousin of the ‘not a guaranteed win’ argument above. Those who argue against 100x because the house still retains an edge will then tell others to make bets that carry even house edge. This approach is contradictory.

Those who argue that the house has a huge edge on the odds bet because the number ‘must roll twice’ are arguing a fallacy that is hurting their bankroll in the long run.  I’ve addressed this ‘odds hit twice’ fallacy in prior articles.

100X CONCENTRATES YOUR BETS

This argument is probably the most legitimate of all the arguments against 100x.

It’s legitimate because there are only four ways to make an odds bet: pass+odds and come+odds, and their dark side equivalents. If you want to place a bet, make hard ways bets, or make prop bets on 2,3,7,11,12, you can’t do so with odds.

My counter is that it’s ok to concentrate your bets. 

While it may totally suck to have your odds bet on the pass with three come bets, only to watch the dice roll on a number that you don’t own, in the long run, you will be rewarded.

You just have to remember the times when you made your come bet and the number immediately repeated. You also have to remember the times when you made an odds bet, then made a come bet, and the very next roll was 7 out. If you had place bets across, you would have lost four units. In this case, you only lost one unit. 

If you want to be a successful gambler, you have to keep your eye on the prize and play the smart game. Don’t let selective memory tempt you into making bets with a high house edge. It’s those high house edge bets that will kill your bankroll.

CONCLUSION

100x is not for everyone. There are significant costs associated with playing a high odds game but there are also significant benefits. In the end, my main argument when given a choice, it’s better to put more money on the odds than it is to spread your bets to other bets that carry a house edge. In the long run, you will do better by betting more odds and fewer bets such as the hard ways or outside place bets.

 

Posted in: Casino, Craps, Gambling

0 thoughts on “Craps: 100x Odds, Arguments and Thoughts

  • Lawrence Roth says:

    Your argument makes sense enough for me to change my strategy. I just have to stay disciplined to resist the temptation to make the other bets. While one of your videos shows a few don’t pass bets, none showed don’t come. While the house has no edge on don’t come odds, do you ever play those bets, like a random shooter or someone with bad karma?

    • I play the don’t come. I’m just not a fan of playing too many DC bets.

      When you play a heavier odds game, I urge you to keep records and review them at the end of the year. I’m quite certain that if you stick to a odds dominant game, you’ll might have some losing sessions, but at the end of the year, your bankroll will thank you, especially if you compare to prior years.

      One of downsides to an odds dominant game is that your earned comps are less, and you will have to start fighting for discretionary comps. That’s a minor downside, in my eyes.

      Best of luck!

  • Max. Another well written post!

    As I live in Hawaii and have limited vacation time, I have limited Casino craps access. I have to fly to gamble, unable to hit the road like a road gambler and drive to the nearest casino. Because of this, I do value comps a lot. In fact I consider comps a significant part of my vacation budget. While I don’t play craps to earn comps, I do monitor my earned comps, take advantage of every Bonus Comp Offer and have focused my play to Caesars Total Rewards to maximize my Comp Benefits. There is no better feeling than flying home a winner with everything comped by Caesar! Hail Caesars!

    My Theoretical Loss, my generous Casino Host, and familiar friendly Crap Supervisors who rate me have provided my wife and I fabulous Las Vegas vacations over the years. There is no way we would pay for the generous comps that we have received. My wife is amazed and we are very grateful!

    While I respect the math of 100x and greatly respect you and your craps strategy, we would definitely miss the wondrous Comps if I played 100x as my Comps would be significantly reduced!

    I think there is as yet unquantified difference from players like me from Hawaii whom are only able or make a few Vegas trips a year compared to those who live in mainland and therefore are able to play significantly more often. Strategy is different as we have significantly less time to play..

    I hope my comments made sense. My writing communication skills are nowhere near as good as yours.

    Anyway, please continue to keep your blog going! The videos are insane and I wait for the day when you capture a 60 minute Heater with multiple 100x odds winners!

    Mahalo and Aloha!

  • Your Bally’s 100 X odds video featured a sequence where you were shooting and had a six with thousand dollar odds on the come out roll and you rolled a six and did not get paid for your odds bet. I always let my odds work on the come out roll up to a limit of two bets out on numbers.
    Odds off on the come out roll is a big casino rip off .

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