The above video is the combination of Part 1 and 2 of the Real Craps Game at Planet Hollywood, with added analysis.

This video addresses, with graphics, an issue that was commonly discussed and speculated: would the result have been better if I had stuck with my typical RoadGambler style of play?

FYI, the typical RoadGambler way to play is one pass line + max odds and then one come bet + max odds. Then if the come bet hits, another come bet + odds.

NO PUT BETS! This means that if there is a put bet option, to not accept the put bet. A put bet is when the player forgoes the come out roll on a come bet. By letting the come bet, which just hit, stay up, the player is effectively accepting a put bet.

Always ask for the come bet winner come down, and start over with a new come bet.

Come bet critics often argue that this wastes rolls when a good roll happens. However, as I explained, there is balance.

This balance means that the come bet will save you money because you don’t know if a table will continue to be hot or cold.

This video is only one small sample, however the final result is indicative of what you can expect over the long term. There’s a reason why I play the way I normally play, and you’ll see why in this video.

 

Posted in: Craps

19 thoughts on “WHAT IF??? Planet HollyWood Real Craps Game Revisited”

  • Alan Sherman says:

    Great work on putting the info together for your normal strategy. I really was curious to see how it would go and right at the “original reload” you actually are ahead which I thought was surprising since the pass/come was so FAR behind the place bet strat up to that point. I figure on a hot roll both will be rocking so I was more curious with horrible rolls earlier. 😉

  • At the 21:58 mark after you had won the 6, you forgot about your 9 come bet which would have still been there. There was an 11, then the 10, then the 9 so your come should have won

    • RoadGambler says:

      I’ll look into this. Thanks for pointing it out. We tried to double and triple check, but these types of projects can be tricky.

  • Captain Kirk says:

    I was also curious how it might have gone with your normal strategy.
    The main thing I have against place only is it’s boring! You don’t get the rush feeling during a good roll, like in the second half. You just sit there, not caring if the shooter hits their point or not, as long as they throw some 6 and 8’s. Granted, it costs a little less to place only.
    You did up your place bets, but what if RG2 also upped his bets after a couple of wins?
    Also about 4:40 when everyone was yelling “watch your hands” to the guy with the accent?
    While he didn’t touch the dice like he stated, he definitely might have messed with the shooters rhythm during their toss, but this is only hindsight.
    Kind of like when someone clicks their photo during Tiger’s backswing. He will definitely let you know you ****** up and he is not happy!
    Anyway, great job posting and keep up the awesome work!

    • RoadGambler says:

      Thanks for the kind words, Captain.

      And yes, Star Trek is better than Star Wars, especially with the new SW junk.

      I said it.

      • Captain Kirk says:

        Hahaha! Yes, Star Trek IS better, although they do talk about the “Darkside” in SW a lot.
        Hopefully, our bets and wins will increase “to boldly go, where no one has gone before!”

        Live long and prosper!

  • Thanks RG for all the hard work in going back and adding what would have happened if you played your original strategy. You can count on me getting a couple of t-shirts when they become available! I used to play pass line and come bet with odds, but the last couple of years I switched over to mainly doing place bets. I’m heading out to Vegas in about a week and after watching this I think I will switch back to doing the pass line and come betting again to see what happens. Who knows, I may even leave the come bet odds working on the come out roll.

  • So RG, I see you’re still trying to justify your less than optimum (actually hideous) play on that day at PH that you captured what would turn out to be the single best craps roll ever posted to the interent. On the subject of capturing the video only , I congradulate you. Job done well.

    Perhaps I should consider it a moral victory that you’ve even taken a look back at those 41 beautiful rolls, however, I can see now after reading your’s and other’s subsequent posts that what I’m dealing with here are people with good intent that understand the rules of craps and are familiar with the odds of the craps table bets, but that don’t know how to PLAY THE GAME the way one needs to PLAY THE GAME to make the BIG SCORE when the dice turn SIZZLING HOT!!

    • RoadGambler says:

      R Stanley,

      Thanks for the feedback.

      Your posts will appear immediately from now on. We filter first comments for spam. You are good to go.

      As for the points you bring up, we are just going to have to agree to disagree.

  • Keep in mind the shooter did worse than ORG ! Its easy to say , after the fact , that you would have killed that roll ! Is this 41 roll the best on the internet now ? Coukd very well be !!

    • RoadGambler says:

      Exactly. The people on the opposite end played more like typical players and actually ended up losing money on that fantastic roll.

      The problem with craps is that while the roll is ongoing, you don’t know if that the 10 number roll is going to end at 20, 30, 40, or end right now. So players pile on their bets thinking the table is ‘hot’ and then end up losing.

      Very easy to say what to do and criticize someone else’s play when you know the results.

      Having said that, I totally am ok with criticism of my play. If I wasn’t, well, we wouldn’t have much of a conversation. I want people to disagree with me. I only ask that critique be constructive and respectful. We can all learn from each other.

  • Unless we assume that the 41-roll masterpiece was done by a master dice-setter in disguise (I didn’t get that impression from the way the guy was throwing the dice… although he was setting them), we can not have predicted this sequence.

    Making a killing means (to me) doubling or quadrupling your bankroll. Playing conservative means taking a 20% gain and calling it quits – at least at that particular table (a 20% gain will happen about 5 times before the entire bankroll is lost).

    And playing the “right way to make a killing” means preparing for the opposite inevitable outcome: for every time you quadruple your bankroll, you will lose the entire bankroll 3 times.

    So either be prepared to lose your bankroll 3 times, then quadruple your money from that “killer” roll (and it is more statistically likely that you will lose your bankroll much more than 3 times, then quit in disgust before getting your money back), or play another “right” way and let the dice decide how much they will allow you to make today. While keeping your losses within reason.

    The dice might be generous or they might not.

    Take it in stride, but I think the pass/come option is best simply because eventually all numbers are in the game for you. Not just the 6 and 8. Why limit yourself to them anyway? Have we not seen outside number rallies? With few if any 6/8’s. Yes we have.

    Play 2 numbers, just let the dice pick them for you.

    Duffer

    • RoadGambler says:

      Part of what makes craps fun and exciting is the uncertainty. Some days, the dice go right and you just can’t see to lose. Some days, it appears that nothing goes right. I’m a fan of patient play. In the long run, patient play works better.

      These 41 roll scenarios are great, for sure, and I loved it. But the problem is that you don’t know if the roll is going to end at 10, 20, 30, or 40. It’s easy to say after the fact, but while it’s ongoing, if you load up thinking that the dice are going to stay hot, you will often give your money back to the casino.

      I agree. I much prefer the come bet. Mathematically, it’s a much better bet than the place bet, and long term, the results show. Those who advocate peace bets over pass/come+ odds will very much expect to meet this same result in the long run. This video is very typical.

      Thank for the read, Duffer. I enjoy the input.

      • RG,

        Thanks to you for posing the questions that get us thinking.

        I’m really not a gambler, if it were not for craps. But because there is an infinitude of ways we can design our method of play, I’m hooked as an “experimenter”.

        It’s important to understand what we are actually spending to play the way we choose, though. In the long run, to increase the likelihood of seeing an upswing of, say, 20% (before the downswing, which Mr. Wynn knows we will invariably hang around for…), we must play cost-effectively because the burn rate can eliminate that 20% possibility very fast.

        With that said, when I simulate my play, I usually model it by computer and see what I’m spending before I go and try it. So as much as I endorse your method of play, I would be bored if I didn’t mix it up. I’m still looking for a great, inexpensive way to maximize potential unforeseen rallies. Just parlaying over and over – as you say – only loses money faster for us. Especially when the bets are place bets which increase vigorish with every doubling of the bet. Even if we are experiencing a great run, in the end parlaying place bets becomes very expensive. Unless we can predict precisely when to pull down our bets.

        Like you did here.

        How the hell did you know?

        Duff

        • Alan Sherman says:

          I think a press/regress then collect/press strategy would beat most pass/come max odds strategies although to take advantage of presses you need duplicate rolls which does benefit the come/max odds approach. So in the end it’s the regress where you can limit your exposure… regress soon enough you beat any come bet play but regress too late and you’re the same or even worse than a come bet. 😉

          • Of course you can regress from max odds just as well. Which RG has done.

            The bottom line is that no matter how you structure your bets – progress/regress/hedge/do/dont/etc., etc. -, the bets you put up will all be logged in the craps gods’ ledger, and the dice will always do you one better. In other words, the dice have just the right offsetting method to undercut whatever method we choose – eventually.

            The only way to stay ahead of the house permanently is to aim for a high target – but not gradually. Play like RG till we are up 20%, then put the entire 20% on the line. If we lose, take it in stride, leave the table with our original bankroll and try again tomorrow. Go and buy a Fat Tuesday’s (large) and get drunk.

            Because if we lose that bet, chances are we get back up to 20% at least one more time by playing conservative again. Try that bet again. The odds are very close to 50/50 on pass line bets (actually like 52/48 edge to the house). Don’t like the 4/10? Bail and wait for 6/8. Then put it all up. On odds…

            But if we play expensively, we never get back to 20% up. If we ever get there at all…

            I’d like to see RG do that. Go up 20%, then put it all on the 6 or 8 as a very last bet.

  • I really enjoyed this video and the comparison between the two strategies. I’d love to see you do the “what if” on the Resorts hotel in Atlantic City, or part of it it, was a long video. But I’m wondering if you used your typical strategy if your winnings would’ve been much greater ?

    • RoadGambler says:

      Welcome, Missy.

      I’ll look into that. I’ll look into the analytics to see the level of engagement and see if there’s general interest in these types of videos.

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