I’ve said before that this is not an advantage players blog. It’s not. However, I recently had something very interesting happen to me, which compels me to write this post. I’ll leave the exact details out until I can verify that the events were not my selective memory or my brain playing tricks on me. I’m planning another trip soon. You’ll get a hint as to what I discovered…
When it comes to asking if any game can be beaten (i.e., played with a positive expectation whether or not the player wins or loses in the short term), the questioner is inviting all sorts of answers from many different people with sometimes conflicting interests. Some people outright dismiss the possibility that roulette can be beaten, while some people will try to sell you a system to ‘win at roulette’, while others take a much more critical approach to the question.
There are some gambling writers who will tell you that you can win at roulette if you use certain betting systems or make so and so series of bets. If you are trying to beat roulette by using progressive or regressive betting systems, you will not, in the long run, beat roulette. Such gambling systems do produce more wins than losses, but eventually, a large loss will wipe out all your small wins.
I’m not talking about betting systems; rather, I’m talking about legitimately beating roulette using observational and deductive skill so that you have a positive expectation in the game.
If you need proof that roulette can be beaten, read about the late Dr. Andrew Jarecki.
Dr. Jarecki was able to beat roulette by identifying inconsistencies in a roulette wheel. I suggest you read the article that I’ve linked above.
The key to beating any roulette game is finding a biased wheel. Finding a biased wheel is not easy.
I’ll be forthright and say that finding a biased wheel is like finding hen’s teeth. Casinos are supposed to test their equipment, and they mostly do.
THE HUMAN FACTOR
Many skeptics claim that roulette cannot be beaten by identifying biased wheels. Casinos use software to analyze whether or not a wheel is biased and will quickly negate any possible exploit. It’s quite easy for a casino to determine if a wheel is biased. If a number fails to appear within a statically acceptable range, the casino will know that a wheel is biased. They’re then supposed to fix the wheel, close the table, or swap out the wheel.
However, at the end of the day, casinos are run by human beings. Casinos have systems and checks and balances in place, but like all humans, sometimes they slack. I know this from running my own business. I have managers who stay on top of my employees and managers who stay on top of managers. People sometimes make human mistakes. Casinos are no different because they’re run by…humans.
So a casino manager may know that a wheel is biased, but they’ll continue to use the wheel. They may move around the wheel, but they’ll continue to use the wheel.
Humans are just sloppy sometimes, and casinos are subject to any problems caused by human weakness.
If you don’t believe me, check this out: http://www2.philly.com/philly/business/tourism_casinos/state-fines-sugarhouse-100k-dealing-short-decks-20181003.html
From my personal knowledge and experience, Sugarhouse Casino isn’t the only casino with these problems.
ADVICE ON HOW TO FIND BIASED WHEELS
First, to win at roulette requires some time and dedication. If you met someone online and signed up for one of their roulette packages or courses, well, good luck. Beating roulette is not something you can just learn from someone who sells you a class or some books.
The only way is to find a biased wheel on your own.
I spoke to someone who is allegedly a biased wheel expert. Here are some of the tips that were shared with me, and that I have permission to repeat.
Find older wheels compared to newer wheels. The reason is that on older wheels, the glue that holds the pockets will chemically degrade over time, possibly changing the characteristics. This results in a change in bounce consistency of those pockets. So when a ball lands in one of those pockets, it may be more or less likely to bounce out of the pocket (you have to determine if it’s more or less bouncy by observing).
You then have to observe the wheel for a while, and see if any of the pockets have certain bounce characteristics which are out of the norm. You need a good observational eye. If it was too obvious, the casino would not allow it to be played.
Let’s assume you find a biased wheel, but you aren’t able to track it. In that case, here is the method: if the board shows that certain numbers are hitting, bet those numbers. While this sounds like a gamblers fallacy statement, it’s not. It is advice based on the hypothesis that pockets can become biased. If there is no bias, then you’ve done no worse. If there is bias, then you’ve gained something. Just don’t go betting your house.
I’ll supplement this report after my next trip.
Good luck at the tables!